English Premier
2009-12-27 - Arsenal vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, Premier League
Sunday, 27th December 2009 - Kickoff 13:30
Arsenal (3rd) Home : 7-0-1 25:7
Arsenal have won 12 of their 13 home games at the Emirates this season in all competitions, but it's that recent 0-3 defeat against Chelsea that sticks in my mind.
Arsenal were in the game for a long time, but never really looked like breaking The Blues down, and with so many injuries in the Arsenal line-up I can see a similar scenario against the stingy Villa defence.
In comparison, Arsenal's defensive efforts have been a bit hit and miss, although the Gunners are much better at the Emirates, where they dominate possession and reduce the amount of defending required.
Arsenal Team News :
Arsenal midfielder Cesc Fabregas could return from the hamstring strain that ruled him out of the win against Hull.
Full back Armand Traore is hopeful of making his comeback from a similar problem, while Bacary Sagna should be restored to the starting line-up.
Doubtful : Fabregas & Traore (both hamstring)
Injured : Bendtner (groin), Clichy (back), Djourou (knee), Gibbs & van Persie (both ankle), Rosicky (hamstring)
Aston Villa (4th) Away : 4-3-2 12:8
Aston Villa are in the top four of the Premier League, and will be looking to underline their quality on Sunday.
Villa have grabbed some quality results so far this season, and having beaten Liverpool at Anfield, Manchester United at Old Trafford and Chelsea at Villa Park the Villians should not have too many fears playing a "big four" side from last season.
Aston Villa head into this game with four Premier League victories in a row, without conceding a single goal, and statistically Villa have the best defence in the league with just 14 goals conceded.
And with Villa scoring at least one goal in each of their nine away games so far - I expect the visitors to get on the scoresheet.
Aston Villa Team News :
Emile Heskey is unlikely to feature for Aston Villa due to a groin strain, so John Carew will start.
Injured : Bouma (toe), Davies (shoulder)
Head to Head
Aston Villa have done well at the Emirates against Arsenal in the last three seasons with two 1-1 draws and last seasons 2-0 victory.
Conversely, Arsenal have done well in the reverse fixture at Villa Park, with four wins and two draws in the last six years.
The Betting Verdict
This game will be all about Arsenal's passing, movement and midfield control versus Villa's counter-attacking football and cutting edge in attack.
We saw how effective that Aston Villa's tactics can be at Old Trafford, and this match is going to be all about whether Arsenal can turn possession and position into enough goals to win.
It might all hinge on whether Arsenal's "captain fantastic" Cesc Fabregas returns to the home sides line-up after missing the win against Hull with a "hamstring tweak".
(check closer to game time for team news)
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 1-1 Aston Villa (or 2-1)
BEST BETTING TIP :
While the home win is my most likely result - it's not a good priced bet.A bet on Aston Villa is available at a great price and shoulf be popular given that Villa have already won at both Anfield and old Trafford.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
However, the best betting play is probably ASTON VILLA +1/2 goal start on the asian handicap.
