NBA Basketball
2009-11-03 - Los Angeles Lakers at Oklahoma Thunder
A Sports Betting Pick by AveSalom
Basketball : United States : NBA Regular Season,
Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009
Oklahoma City Thunder
(2-1, 2nd in the Northwest Division)
Oklahoma started this season with two victories over mediocre opponents (vs Sacramento, 102-89 and at Detroit, 91-83). Their last game vs Portland featured excellent team defense by the Thunder, but home team's offense was miserable.
Oklahoma's star Kevin Durant was only able to shoot 3-20 field goals mainly due to ineffective guard play (Westbrook) and solid defense by Portland (Webster). It has to be noted that Portland came into the Sunday game at Oklahoma with a 1-2 record having lost their last two.
This was Oklahoma's first game against a solid playoff team and could be an indication of how well the Thunder matches up with the best Western Conference clubs. Oklahoma lost the game 74-83.
Oklahoma has no injuries and is expected to start Westbrook-Sefolosha-Krstic-Green-Durant
Los Angeles Lakers
(2-1, 2nd in the Pacific Division)
LA Lakers beat the Clippers in a 'derby' opener, lost the next home game to Dallas, and beat Atlanta on Sunday night, again at the Staples center, 118-110.
Pau Gasol has been sitting out with hamstring injury since October 9 preseason loss to Golden State. Starting five: Bryant-Fisher-Bynum-Artest-Odom
Head to Head
Scott Brooks took over the position 11 months ago and Oklahoma (previously Seattle Supersonics). Therefore, there were only three games played between the Thunder and the Lakers under current head coaches' guidance.
Feb 10, 2009 LAL 105 - 98 OKC (LAL -7)
Feb 24, 2009 OKC 93 - 107 LAL (LAL -8)
Mar 24, 2009 OKC 89 - 107 LAL (LAL -7.5)
Los Angeles won all three straight up, but only one against the spread (ATS). Straight up wins do not mean a lot during the second half of the NBA season when a championship contender like the Lakers plays a lottery team like the Thunder.
It often makes sense to give bench players more minutes ... and lose the game to improve team's chances for a high draft lottery pick.
The two team's first encounter on February 10 kicked off a seven-game losing streak for Oklahoma, who only won 10 games out of their last 31 since then. The Lakers, on the other hand, only lost 8 games out of their last 32 in regular season 2008/2009. Out of the 8 losses, 7 were away.
Tonight, Oklahoma's starting five will be identical to the team fielded in the two last games vs the Lakers. Los Angeles starting five will miss Gasol (injury), Ariza (traded) and Walton (benched).
It's a different team for Los Angeles, and no less than outstanding individual performance is required from Kobe Bryant for the Lakers to win games until Gasol returns.
The Betting Summary
Los Angeles has convinced no one they can return to the NBA Finals, much less win another Championship, with their play so far this season.
Absense of Gasol allows their opposition to double Kobe without stretching the defense too much, and to get into the penalty later in the quarters.
Oklahoma's core has shown enough defensive effort to beat two average teams, and lose to a good Portland team - only because of Portland's equally good defense.
I can be sure of Oklahoma's effort in this home game. I can't bet against the Thunder, since Lakers are known for doing just enough to win a game.
And sometimes, not even that much.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Oklahoma +7.5 pts to keep it close.
