NCAA Football
2009-10-03 - UCLA Bruins at Stanford Cardinal
A Sports Betting Pick by Luccin
Football: United States, NCAA Football 2009/2010
3rd October, 2009, 3:30pm (ET), 8:30pm (London)
Venue: Paolo Alto, California
Both teams are off to a solid start with only 1 defeat between them. On paper there seems little to choose but both teams will want the boost and a possible chance of winning the Pac 10.
Previous Meetings :
2008 UCLA v Stanford 23-20
2007 UCLA @ Stanford 45-17
2006 UCLA v Stanford 31-0
2005 UCLA @ Stanford 30-27
2004 UCLA v Stanford 21-0
UCLA lead the all time series 45-30-3
UCLA Bruins (3-0)
The Bruins are off to a flyer and sit at 3-0. They have played a reasonable out of conference schedule including two games against BCS teams. Only Tennessee have played them close and even this was an underdog victory for the Bruins.
Defence has been the key, no opponent has managed more than 15 points and the D is giving up a very tight 251ypg (10th in NCAA).
Attack has been another matter, barely breaking the 300 yards will not worry many of the PAC10’s defences.
The key will be to establish a running game as the passing game is not built for big plays, any requirement to start slinging the ball will lead to a defeat.
Stanford Cardinal (3-1)
The Cardinal also are off to a nice start, surprising many with a 3-1 record. Their blue collar approach is popular with the supporters and reflect head coach Jim Harbaugh’s work ethic.
Of concern will be that the defeat against Wake Forest came against a team that have since failed to impress, it did come off the back of a cross country trip though. The win over Washington looks very solid.
A very balanced offence is being capably lead by freshman QB Andrew Luck, he looks to be a huge talent if he progresses as he is. Couple that with stud RB Toby Gerhart and Stanford are a potential offensive juggernaut.
Defence is solid without being spectacular and will need to play well as UCLA are a notch above previous opponents.
The Betting Verdict :
A good test for both teams, Stanford face a tough test as the UCLA defense will hope to force Stanford into the air early.
Expect a very tight battle, UCLA will have the edge in this low scoring affair. Over/under bets do not appeal due to the very low line of 45.5
The Pick :
UCLA 24-21 Stanford
BEST BETTING TIP :
Also consider UCLA to win outright on the moneyline at 2.75 (+175)
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take UCLA (+5) to cover the spread (main bet)
