AFL Aussie Rules
2009-09-26 - St Kilda Saints vs Geelong Cats
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
AFL: Australia, AFL Premiership 2009
Saturday, September 26th 2009
Kickoff 2:40pm Local Time : 4:40am BST
The two best teams have lived up to form and qualified for the last Saturday in September.
St. Kilda was tested against the Bulldogs and jsut emerged as 7 point victors - whilst Geelong found its most imperious form to dispose of Collingwood by over 12 goals.
This promises to be a close Grand Final and the weather could play a role with rain and wind forecast for Saturday.
St. Kilda
The Saints have lost only two games all year and have done everything right. Their players have been consistent and injury free for the most part and this weeks fixture will be no exception.
The team is expected to line up as they did last week, although there has been some specualtion over the condition of captain Nick Riewoldt's troublesome knee. He will play with the help of painkillers and the like and expect him to be at his best.
The Saints who have the no. 1 defence in the league will again need it hold up against the multiple pronged Geelong attack. The battle of the midfield will be one for the ages with some profilic ball winners in Hayes, Dal Santo and Montagna being vital cogs in the centre.
Clint Jones is likely to get the tagging job on Gary Ablett and he did ok last time holding him to 27 relatively ineffectual touches. This will again be a match-up to follow closely, as shutting Ablett down goes a long way to stopping the Cats.
Geelong
The Cats demolished the Pies last week and the form they have found will go a long way to deciding this fixture. Their midfield had a monopoly on the ball during the second half, and the defence only allowed 1 Magpie goal in 60 minutes of football.
Paul Chapman kicked 5 goals and other contributors helped with building a big Cats score, which could have been bigger given their inaccurate kicking ... this will be need to be improved on Saturday.
The defence led by Scarlett, Harley and Taylor will get solid support form Enright and Milburn. The team is expected to line up the same as last week but there will be a hard luck story of one player having to miss.
It is likely to be Matthew Stokes who played all year but missed last week due to a niggling injury, that may have been costly.
Recent Head to Head
2007, Round 10, Geelong (19.11) 125 def St Kilda (9.11) 65
2008, Round 4, Geelong (21.10) 136 def St Kilda (13.16) 94
2008, 1Q Final, Geelong (17.17) 119 def St Kilda (8.13) 61
2009, Round 14, St Kilda (14.7) 91 def Geelong (13.7) 85
Geelong leads last 4 games 3-1, with only defeat being by 6 points right at the final siren.
The Betting Verdict
I am going with Geelong to win this match.
The Cats have scoring options all over the field and are one of the few teams who can post a score over the Saints. Brownlow Medalist midfielders Bartel and Ablett will be a bit too classy in the centre and will help get the result.
As a main bet I would suggest Geelong winning by less than 39.5 pts
For anyone who considers novelty bets think about Paul Chapman for the Norm Smith Medal (Bets on Ground), Joey Corey for the most disposals, and Shannon Byrnes for the first goal kicker.
Go Cats!
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Geelong to win by less than 39 points(Best price is 2.23 at Canbet)
