AFL Aussie Rules
2009-09-18 - St Kilda vs Western Bulldogs
A Sports Betting Pick by Costanzo
AFL: Australia, AFL Premiership 2009
Friday 18th September 2009
Kickoff 7:45 pm local time (10:45 am BST)
St. Kilda (1st) 20-2
The Saints who finished the regular season at 20-2 have been the best team all year. These two sides played in week 1 of the finals, and it was a dominant Saints display against the Magpies and St Kilda will be confident of cementing a Grand Final berth with a win here.
St Kilda are likely to take an unchanged line-up into this game with the team being blessed with a full list to choose from at a vital time of the year.
The defence which has been the best in the league all season sets up so much of the attacking drive that results in scores. The Nick Riewoldt led forward line will ensure that the dogs need to kick a score to win the match.
Western Bulldogs (3rd) 15-7
The Western Bulldogs are one of the most exciting teams to watch.
The Bulldogs fast play and silky skills make it difficult for opponents to compete on that level. However, the weakness of the Dogs is the contested ball and this sometimes poses a problem, particularly against the calibre of the Saints hard ball winners in the centre.
The Dogs small forward line will look lively but may find it tough to post a competetive score. Their defence will have a tough day against Riewoldt, Justin Koschitzcke and Stephen Milne.
Their midfield will be the key to winning with Brownlow medalist Adam Cooney, leading the way from Matthew Boyd and Nathan Eagleton.
A couple injury clouds loom over the Dogs with ruckman Will Minson. Callan Ward and Ryan Griffen are smaller worries but should be alright to play, given it is do or die.
Recent Head to head
05-Sep-2009 St Kilda (14.12) 96 beat Western Bulldogs (12.10) 82
21-Aug-2009 St Kilda (14.12) 96 lost Western Bulldogs (16.14) 110
22-May-2009 St Kilda (17.14) 116 beat Western Bulldogs (17.12) 114
19-Sep-2008 St Kilda (12.11) 83 beat Western Bulldogs (7.12) 54
19-Jul-2008 St Kilda (19.17) 131 beat Western Bulldogs (10.10) 70
The last four games have all been played at Docklands or the M.C.G.
The Betting Verdict
This will be a hard fought match and the winner will be a worthy Grand Finalist.
I expect the Dogs to be competitive early but the Saints should be too strong in the end.
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take the Saints to cover the -17.5 Line at 1.90
