NCAA Football
2009-09-12 - Louisiana Tech at Navy
A Sports Betting Pick by Luccin
Venue: Annapolis, Maryland
Kickoff: Saturday, 12th September 2009, 15:30PM
Previous Meetings : This is the first ever matchup
A nice out of conference game for two unknown teams who will both be hoping to get to a bowl game this season.
Both outfits started out with a defeat against good teams, Tech went down to Auburn (13-37) while Navy came up just short against Ohio State (27-31).
So both teams will be looking to get off the mark in this one.
Louisiana Tech :
The Bulldogs look like a programme on the up, a solid 8-4 season last year was followed up with a nice bowl win in the Independence Bowl.
Last weekend's game was a total mismatch and not too much should be read into a road game against a major conference team.
The key for the Dogs will be the running game, RB Daniel Porter looked impressive last year but he will need to carry the ball more times if Louisiana are to win, also WR/KR Daniel Livas is a real playmaker and if he can get in the open field exciting things could happen.
Defence is less impressive, the secondary was already poor and has lost a couple of starters, more exciting for this game is the defensive line, these are a solid unit and should be impressive against any team trying to run the ball, this should be a good matchup for Navy’s option attack.
Navy Midshipmen :
Navy put in a great performance last weekend in almost upsetting #6 Ohio State, whether Ohio State are good remains to be seen but it was still impressive against a powerhouse team.
As usual Navy run the triple option defence, this can be tough to stop but a quality defensive line can put a real kink in the attack as the passing options are very limited. Expect at least 3 players to rush for over 50 yards and for the Mids to put up at 300 yards offense.
On the defensive side things are less sure, Ohio State were cruising at half time and laziness allowed Navy back into the game, until the half Navy looked very unsure against the run and a repeat of this will allow things to get interesting.
The Betting Verdict :
There is nothing to choose between these two teams and my own line ratings give Louisiana a 0.3 point advantage on a neutral field.
Both teams will be desperate to bounce back this week and we could see a touchdown festival. Given that the line is 7 points I will take Louisiana Tech in the handicap.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Take Louisiana Tech (with +7 points) at 2.02 (+102 US)
