English Premier
2009-05-24 - Arsenal vs Stoke City
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, Premier League
Sunday, 24th May 2009 - Kickoff 16:00
Arsenal (4th - Home Rec : 10-5-3 27:15)
Arsenal will spend the close season contemplating a fourth trophy-less season, and for the 3rd time in four seasons Arsenal will also have to settle for 4th place in the league.
The talk in England is often of the "big four clubs", but Arsenal run the risk of that being trimmed to the "big three" unless they can find a way to blend youth with experience, and convince manager Arsene Wenger that he needs to run with a bigger squad.
Despite that, I reckon that you could still make a case for Arsenal being listed in Europe's top eight clubs (and this is backed up by Arsenal being seeded 6th in UEFA's charts for 2009/10) which probably just goes to show how strong the Premier League is right now.
Team News :
Arsenal will have an experienced goalkeeper as Lukasz Fabianski has recovered from a knee problem to be fit for the match with Manuel Almunia (ankle) is still out.
Samir Nasri also has a knee injury and misses out for the Gunners.
Long-term absentee Tomas Rosicky is back in training, but will not play again this season. Full-back Gael Clichy (back), William Gallas (knee) and striker Eduardo (ankle) are all sidelined.
Emmanuel Adebayor has an (ahem) official "groin injury" although doesn't appear to be reveiving any treatment for it, and will take no part in this game - as Arsenal appear to have cotton-wooled the big striker in preparation for a sale to anyone with more oney than sense.
Stoke City (11th - Away Rec : 2-4-12 15:36)
Stokes season long form line on the road looks awful, but Stoke have won two of their last three away games, beating West Brom (2-0) and Hull City (2-1).
And to underline the receent trend, Stoke have won six of their last 10 games at all venues to move comfortably into mid-table, an impressive performance for the club in it's first season back in the Premier League.
Stoke beat Arsenal 2-1 in the reverse fixture, so manager Tony Pulis and his side will travel to the Emirates with some hope.
Team News :
Stoke have the luxury of being able to field a virtually unchanged side from the one that beat Wigan last weekend.
However, there may be two strengthening moves as Danny Pugh may return at full-back, while striker Henri Camara is available after not being eligible to play last time as he is on loan from the Latics.
The Betting Verdict
There is nothing running on this game for either club, which should help to make it a more open affair, and typically that does seem to help the home side in these end of season affairs.
I have Arsenal as the most likely winners, but the low odds and the inexperienced goalkeeper do not make it a very good bet at all.
Value punters will realise that both the DRAW and the STOKE upset are over-priced but only have a 1/4 and 1/8 likelihood repsectively of hitting.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Arsenal 2-0 Stoke City
BEST BETTING TIP :
So ARSENAL are expected to win - but I cannot take the bet at that price.A wee value play on the DRAW at over 5.50 at PinnaclePSorts might be worth a shot.
