UEFA Cup
2009-05-20 - Shaktar Donetsk vs Werder Bremen
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: Europe, UEFA Cup
Wednesday 20th May 2009 - Kickoff 19:45
Shaktar Donetsk
Shaktar Donetsk have made their way to the UEFA Cup Final despite not being entered into the competition at the start of the season.
Shaktar made it to the UEFA Cup knockout stage by finishing 3rd in their Champions League Group, and then beating Tottenham Hotspur, CSKA Moscow, Marseille and countrymen Dynamo Kiev in two legged ties to reach the final.
Recent form has been good for Shaktar, who come into the game having won 23 of their last 27 games in all competitions and over the last two months they've won ten of their last eleven matches.
Shaktar's attacking weapons in Europe underline the amount of financial backing the club has, with Brazilians Fernandinho (4 goals), Jadson (3 goals), and Luiz Adriano (2 goals) as well as Croatian Darijo Srna (2 goals).
Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen have also made the UEFA Cup final through a similar path - finishing 3rd in the group stages of the Champions League and then defeating AC Milan, St Etienne, Udinese and Hamburg.
However Werder Bremen's recent form has not been so good, with a home loss to Hamburg in the first leg of the semi-final, and another loss last weekend in the Bundesliga to Karlsruher - admittedly with a reserve-filled side.
Diego is suspended and is a massive loss for the Germans. He's their most influential playmaker and second highest scorer with 11 league goals and seven more in Europe this season.
Hugo Almeida is also suspended and with 9 league goals and three in Europe he's worked well as a second striker playing alongside Claudio Pizarro.
Now Pizarro will have to play as a lone threat (no other Bremen player has scored more than once in Europe this season) and that should mean that Shaktar will mark him very tightly indeed.
Head to Head
These sides have never met directly head to head.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record against German clubs :
P9 W4 D2 L3 F10 A10
Werder Bremen's record against Ukrainian clubs :
P4 W2 D1 L1 F14 A6
Suspensions
Shakhtar Donetsk :
Olexandr Kucher returns from suspension but Tomas Hubschmann misses the final following a booking in the semi-final second leg.
Werder Bremen :
Midfielder Diego and striker Hugo Almeida are both serving one-match bans in the final.
The Betting Verdict
Statistically, I have these two sides similarly ranked based on their European form.
But Shaktar Donetsk seem to be in a better winning mentality over the 6-8 weeks, and they also seem to have an almost complete squad available while Werder Bremen will miss TWO important players.
This must give the Ukranian side the edge, and given my estimates, I'd be prepared to back them to win at prices of 2.50 or more.
The bookmakers are going the other way and favouring the German team, possible because of the weight of Germans betting on their local side, and are offering Shaktar at prices of 2.70+ right now - and so Shaktar Donetsk are my "value" bet.
The Pick :
Shaktar Donetsk 2-1 Werder Bremen (or 1-0)
