English Premier
2009-03-21 - Portsmouth vs Everton
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Football: England, Premier League
Saturday, 21st March 2009 - Kickoff 12:45
Portsmouth (17th - Home Rec : 5-2-7 18:22)
It's getting a bit nervy for Pompey fans as Portmouth have won just once in the last 10 league game (1-3-6) and have veered alarmingly towards the relegation zone as a consequence.
Last weekend's 1-1 draw at Boro was a bit unfair as Pompey held a lead for an hour before conceding a last minute equaliser to Marlon King.
But that's the way it's been going for Portsmouth right now, and with five losses from their last six games at home I'm not sure why they're priced at the same level as Everton.
Portsmouth Team News :
Portsmouth will be without Jermaine Pennant. The on loan Liverpool winger limped out of last weekend's 1-1 draw at Middlesbrough with a calf tear and faces up to three weeks out.
Papa Bouba Diop and Marc Wilson remain side-lined.
Everton (6th - Away Rec : 7-4-3 16:12)
Everton have been on a very good run since November, losing just once in thier last 13 league games (a 0-1 defeat at Old Trafford) and going 5-4-1 in the last 10.
Admittedly, the away form has dropped a little bit as the goals have dried up, but the Toffees are deservedly in the top six so to see prices approaching 3.00 for an away win is a surprise.
Everton Team News :
Nigerian defender Joseph Yobo misses out for Everton after injuring his hamstring in training this week.
But midfielder Tim Cahill should return from the calf injury that forced him to be substituted at half-time against Stoke last weekend.
Head to Head
Everton won their first three trips to Fratton Park in the Premier League, but haven't scored in the last two, losing won and drawing 0-0 last season.
Everton hold a 4-0-2 advantage at Goodison Park, but Portsmouth got the upperhand in the reverse fixture earlier this season winning 3-0.
The Betting Verdict
I have everton as just over 50% likely to win this game and a quick look at the records backs this up as Everton have won half their away games while Pompey have lost half of their home games.
Everton haven't seen a lot of goals in their travels recently, so a scoreline of 0-1, 0-0 or 1-1 is likely.
So while it's no banker bet, there certainly is a lot of value around the away win and it's a bet that I'll take quickly.
The Statistics :
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The Pick :
Portsmouth 0-1 Everton (or 0-0 draw)
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take EVERTON at good value to win.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
ON the asian handicap of "level ball" +0, then I'd take EVERTON at prices of even money, where a draw returns your stake.
