UEFA Cup
2009-02-26 - CSKA Moscow vs Aston Villa
A Sports Betting Pick by EPM
Football: Europe, UEFA Cup
Thursday, 26th February 2009 - kickoff 17:00 GMT
The odds have dropped dramatically since news emerged of the squad that Martin O Neill is taking to Moscow. Early prices of 2.10 on the home win have been smashed down to circa 1.6 and it’s hard to argue with that when you analyse the game.
CSKA Moscow ( Russia -- )
The Russian side may be on their winter break but showed no signs of rustiness on their visit to Villa Park in a 1-1 draw last week. any, including this writer thought that the winter break in which they had not played since early December would damage their chances.
But CSKA deservedly took the leak through Vagnor Love and could have scored more if they had their shooting boots on. New coach Zico has instilled a sense of confidence in them and has changed their tactics from 3-5-2 to 4-4-2 but they have adapted without hassle. He has spoken of his delight at the attitude and performance of some of his players, in particular the younger generation.
In general there is a good vibe coming from the camp and they can draw confidence from the first leg performance and in particular their midfield which didn’t let Villa create many clear cut chances.
Aston Villa (England - 4th)
As mentioned above Martin O Neill appears to have conceded the UEFA cup for this year to concentrate on a bigger prize, a top 4 standing in the league and a UEFA Champions League spot next year.
Gareth Barry, Brad Friedel, Emile Heskey, James Milner, Ashley Young, Gabriel Agbonlahor, Carlos Cuellar and Stiliyan Petrov are all excluded from the travelling squad to Russia, all key players.
O'Neill said: "We have a couple of players who are carrying injuries and a couple of others who I believe need resting for the important final third of the season."
This leaves O Neill with a largely inexperienced squad with the only regulars being Luke Young, Curtis Davies, Zat Knight and John Carew.
Obviously having conceded an away goal Villa will have to attack to get something from the tie.
Its hard to see where the goals will come from though seeing as they are largely dependant on Barry, Milner and Young in the middle and Agbonlahor for scoring. In fact their best player in the first leg was Petrov and he’s also missing.
The Betting Verdict
Although the price has dropped it’s hard to argue with CSKA wining this one.
A scoreless draw will see them through but they won’t play the game like this. Defending a 0-0 lead is too risky and they showed enough quality in the first leg to say that they can attack and score.
Going to a cold plastic pitch in Russia would be tough for Villa’s full team and with this bunch of inexperienced players it going to be even harder.
The Pick :
CSKA Moscow 2-0 Aston Villa
