English Premier
2009-02-23 - Hull City vs Tottenham Hotspur
A Sports Betting Pick by Caged
Sunday, 23rd February 2008 - Kick off 20.00
Live on Setanta Sports 1
Hull City
Hull haven’t won a premiership game since beating hapless Middlesboro on the 6th December, and you have to go back as far as October for a win previous to that. Six defeats on the trot in January and February has made 2009 a miserable calendar year so far for a team who pulled off so many shocks early in the season. To add to the gloom, big January signing Jimmy Bullard is out with knee knack.
However, Hull have drawn their last two games, and the last of these was away at Chelsea. Clearly Chelsea were full of disharmony at the time, but for significant periods of the game Hull were the better side.
Hull's home form has been particularly poor , winning only 3 of 12 and suffering defeat 6 times. Hull have drawn 1 (West Brom) and lost 3 (Arsenal, Villa and Sunderland) of their last 4 home games, scoring 4 and conceding 10.
Hull do however do better against bottom half opposition, having only lost 2 of 10 against fellow bottom dwellers.
Tottenham
Harry Redknapp’s revolution at Spurs, which seems to be to resign the Carling Cup winnign squad, is not going as well as was planned. He has inherited a team with a soft centre, and on current performances he does not appear to have been able to add the much needed steel and strength.
Spurs recent results are comparable to Hull's, having only won one since December 8th. Their away form is particularly poor, having won only 2 and losing 8 away from home. They have lost away from home against some very poor opposition in recent months.
A midweek UEFA cup defeat in Donetsk will have done little for morale or energy, although it is difficult to gauge the effect this will have as much of the first choice eleven were rested.
Spurs have lost all four of their last four away games (Bolton, Wigan, West Brom and Newcastle), scoring 3 and conceding 8.
Spurs have lost 8 of 12 against bottom half teams.
Head to head
The clubs only league meeting was earlier in the year at Tottenham when Hull were in their full giant killing pomp and Spurs were suffering at the hands of Ramos. Hull won 1-0.
Team News
According to the BBC, Hull have Ashbee, Cousin, Folan and garnder returning, but Bullard and Fagan are out.
Spurs have Keane, Pavluchenke, Corluka, Modric, Woodgate, Palacios, Lennon and Cudicini back after all were cup tied or rested for the midweek trip to Donetsk.
The Betting Verdict
Games between teams so close in the table and in such poor runs of form is always difficult, and this is made even harder by the fact that Tottenham on paper are by far the better side and have new players in their ranks that could make a difference.
The game isn’t played on paper however and odds of around 2.3 for a team with Tottenhams away record is very difficult to swallow, especially following a midweek European away trip.
This is effectively a coin toss game, and not one for the faint hearted and so the best advice is to proceed with extreme caution. Looking purely at the odds, we see we can get Hull at around 3.2 and the draw is around 3.4. On a value basis, both of these would appear to hold more appeal than Spurs at 2.3.
The Statistics :
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Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Based on odds and value I’ll try Hull +0.25 on the asian handicap which I can get for just under evens.
I estimate that a Home win or draw is around 60% likely.
I estimate that a Home win or draw is around 60% likely.
