NFL Football
2009-01-11 - San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers
A Sports Betting Pick by Bodog
Heinz Field, Pittsburgh
Sunday, 11th January 2009 - Kickoff 4:45 p.m. ET
Weather Forecast :
25% chance of snow, 15 degrees, 10-mph winds
We’ve shed four NFL teams on our path to the Super Bowl. Only eight remain, and we’ll see all eight this weekend in the Divisional Round.
The four home teams are all favored, having earned themselves the week off while the four visitors played in the Wild-Card Round.
The week off should be a major advantage, but over the last two seasons, home teams are 4-4 SU and 1-7 ATS during the Divisionals.
The crystal ball suggests at least one of the visiting teams will pull off the upset this week and move on to the Conference Round.
San Diego : 9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS, Under 8-8-1
The Chargers had the most notable “upset” of the Wild-Card Round with a 23-17 overtime win against the Colts (-1.5).
Again, special teams were San Diego’s savior last week, specifically the return antics of Darren Sproles, who had a combined 178 yards on punts and kicks.
The Colts are notorious for their poor return coverage; this is also one of Pittsburgh’s major weaknesses.
Pittsburgh: 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, Under 8-8
Pittsburgh has survived almost entirely on the efforts of the top-ranked defense in the league in terms of efficiency.
QB Ben Roethlisberger’s 80.1 passer rating (down from 104.1 last year) is worse than Baltimore rookie Joe Flacco at 80.3, and Big Ben has been sacked 46 times this season.
San Diego’s Philip Rivers (105.5 QB rating, best in the NFL) has hit the dirt just 25 times.
Head to Head (since 2001)
Nov 16, 2008 @ PIT - PIT 11, SD 10
Oct 08, 2006 @ SD -- SD 23, PIT 13
Oct 10, 2005 @ SD -- PIT 24, SD 22
Dec 21, 2003 @ PIT - PIT 40, SD 24
Pittsburgh leads 3-1, home teams lead 3-1.
Betting Action
The Chargers are getting nearly two-thirds of the betting action this week as 6-point road dogs.
The Verdict
It will be cold, it could be wet, and this one just feels like it's going to be a tough defensive grind, and that plays into the hands of the Pittsburgh D to us.
The elements and the soft field surface at Heinz Field slow will slow down Sproles, and when the Steelers finally catch him it's going to hurt.
The Pick :
San Diego 13-17 Pittsburgh
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
Even though it's most likely that the Steelers will edge this game ...
Taking SAN DIEGO +6 could be the best ATS play in which is likely to remain a very tight game.
Taking SAN DIEGO +6 could be the best ATS play in which is likely to remain a very tight game.
