Euro 2008
2008-06-29 - Germany vs Spain
A Sports Betting Pick by Auls
The tournament comes to a close on Sunday evening after an entertaining month of football. The thing that made the most happy from this tournament was the success of those sides that attacked after too many teams decided to play 'not to lose' rather than to win in recent seasons.We have had memorable matches and goals, and I will look back on this tournament with some fondness. I just hope we can enjoy a final fit to end Euro 2008 on Sunday in Vienna.
Germany
Germany came through an entertaining semi final with Turkey 3-2 thanks to a last gasp goal from Philip Lahm. They did not play a good match, and the Turks could be considered very unfortunate not to make the final.
The Germany side I have seen during this tournament has ranged from the very effective (against Portugal) to the very lucky (against Turkey) to the poor (against Croatia) and it is hard to know which side will turn up here. The key for me is that Spain would beat Germany if they performed as they did against Turkey and Croatia, but I think it would be an exceptional game if Germany can reach the heights they achieved against Portugal.
Germany have had a solid tournament when it comes to scoring goals, scoring 10 in their 5 matches. However, Jens Lehmann has been at his inconsistant best so far and the 2 centre backs have looked a little off the pace. The German defence has conceded 6 goals in their 5 matches so far and have conceded 2 goals in both the quarter and the semi final.
Germany are hoping their 'winning mentality' will leave them with a pyschological edge over the Spaniards here. While Germany admit they have not played exceptionally and that Spain have played very well, Joachim Loew believes his side have enough within them to find a way to win.
The big news out of the German camp is the possibility that Michael Ballack will not be fit enough to play in the match. He has missed the last 2 days of training, but after being forced out of the World Cup Final in 2002 through suspension, I dont imagine wild horses could drag him away from playing. The other piece of news is Torsten Frings should come back into the side after recovering from injury.
Spain
Spain have finally ended their international voodoo of not being able to reach a tournament final but it could be all so hollow if they fail to bring the trophy home. They played very well against a Russian side that seemed to just run out of legs and Spain controlled the game for the majority and essentially strolled to victory at the end.
Spain have looked the best side in the tournament and only the Italians with their dogged defending managed to keep a clean sheet against them. They played very well in both games against Russia but have also shown some heart in their performances by scoring last minute goals to win matches over Sweden and Greece during the group stages.
Spain looked a little fragile at the back during the group stages and failed to keep a clean sheet. However, they did not have the services of Carlos Puyol in 2 of those games, and his return has seen the Spanish record 2 clean sheets during the knock out stages. Spain have only conceded 3 goals in their 5 matches so far in the tournament. The Spanish have not struggled for goals with 11 in their 5 matches, and they only failed to score when met with the Italians stubbornness.
The Spaniard squad members have all been very respectful of this German side while oozing confidence in their own ability to turn on the style in this important match. They insist 'the best is still to come' and they seem to have this resolve to win this tournament and correct all the jibes about having 'no bottle' at the business end of tournaments.
David Villa is finally ruled out of this game but it could help the Spanish in a perverse way. They will likely counter the German side with an identical 4-5-1 system and the loss of Villa means Cesc Fabregas is likely to come into the side and he seems to inject this Spanish side with some urgency.
Head to Head
Germany and Spain have only met 2 times in the last 8 years, and both sides managed to win at home in their friendly matches.
They have met 7 times in competitive matches, with Germany holding a 4 wins to 1 record over Spain.
Their only 2 meetings in European Championships have seen each side win 1 match.
Prediction
Spain have looked good in the majority of this tournament and I cannot look beyond them to win. However, if there is one nation in football that can cause an upset it has to be the Germans.
Germany are likely to employ a similar system tactically as the Italians and look to prevent giving Spain too much room to manouevere and try to give them little time on the ball to play their passing game.
I just feel that Spain's quality will be able to tell eventually during this game. I can see the Germans keeping it close but eventually being broken down by the quality of the Spanish side.
The Pick :
Germany 0-2 Spain
BEST BETTING TIP :
Spain winDraw HT-Spain FT @ 5.5 (Bet365)
