Manchester United v Sporting Lisbon
Group stage
27 November 2007 20:45 (CET)
Old Trafford - Manchester

Manchester United host Sporting Lisbon on Tuesday night with their qualification assured after four straight wins - so they don't NEED to win this game and that's resulted in some higher than expected prices on the home win.

And the 1.61 on offer is a price that I'm prepared to accept as I believe that United manager Alex Ferguson is fuming after a 0-1 loss in the Premier LEague on the weekend.

Ferguson took a risky decision to rest Cristiano Ronaldo on the wekend specifically so he could play in this game, and that risk backfired as United looked toothless with Carlos Tevez up front.

So I expect him to prepare and field a strong team for this match to make sure that the second task is completed correctly.

He has been quoted on UEFA.com as saying "I think the incentives are huge for us - obviously if we win, we win the group and therefore we can look forward to being seeded for February's knockout stage."

Opponents Sporting Lisbon are unlikely to progress from this group as they are 3 points behind Roma - and the Italian side hold the tie-breaker - so a 3rd place and UEFA Cup qaulification seems a more likely achievement.

Sporting drew 1-1 at little Leixoes SC on the weekend - their 4th game in a row without a win - a result which leaves them 10 points behind leaders FC Porto already.

It also seems likely that Sporting will hand a debut Champions League game to 19 year old goalkeeper Rui Patricio who only made his first game of the season in that 1-1 draw with Leixoes.

THE STATS

Manchester_Utd L5 Home Form (5-0-0)
07/11/07 W 4-0 v Dynamo_Kyiv
02/10/07 W 1-0 v Roma_AS
24/04/07 W 3-2 v Milan_AC
10/04/07 W 7-1 v Roma_AS
07/03/07 W 1-0 v Lille

Head to Head Form
19/09/07 Sporting_Lisbon 0-1 Manchester_Utd

Sporting_Lisbon L5 Away Form (1-2-2)
23/10/07 L 1-2 v Roma_AS
02/10/07 W 2-1 v Dynamo_Kyiv
22/11/06 L 0-1 v Inter_Milan
31/10/06 D 0-0 v Bayern_München
27/09/06 D 1-1 v Spartak_Moscow

THE VERDICT

Some of the bookmakers have priced this game up as if Manchester United are not too bothered about thias game and I think that's wrong.

The Pick :

Manchester United 2-0 Sporting Lisbon

PERCENTAGE ESTIMATE :

Manchester United 75% - Draw 17% - Sporting Lisbon 8%

FIXED ODDS BETTING :

Take Manchester United to win at anything about 1.55

There are a couple of bookmakers still offering 1.60+ which seems far too high to me - it's well worth joining up just to take the bet.