AFL Aussie Rules
2007-05-18 - Adelaide Crows vs Richmond Tigers
A Sports Betting Pick by Gooner
Where and when :
Friday 18th May, AAMI Stadium 7.10pm
Head to head :
Adelaide 14 wins, Richmond 8 wins
Last time:
Richmond 10.9 (69) d Adelaide 9.12 (66),
Round 8, 2006, at Telstra Dome.
Summary :
Lets not beat around the bush about the Richmond Tigers - they're awful. Bottom of the league ladder with a points percentage of just 65% - they've been well beaten everytime they've gone out to play.
Two weeks ago they were thumped for a 65-222 scoreline by the Geelong Cats - which I beleive was the worst ever defeat in the club's history.
Last weekend they travelled to Adelaide and lost by 40 points to the Power - trailing by 50 in the 3rd quarter.
Everyone will pick Adelaide to win this one - and "my spreadsheet" does too - but it says not by as big a margin as the bookmakers are saying?
Why?
Well Adelaide haven't made a good fist of being home favourites this season, losing a couple of "easy games" by 24 to Collingwood, and 31 to Essendon here at AAMI Stadium when expected to coast to victory.
And yet Adeliade have delivered the goods against the tough sides - beating Sydney by 17 here - and then winning by 31 in Brisbane.
So I guess what I am saying is that given that this Adeliade side run so "hot and cold" do you really want to put your money on them at a price of 1.10 here ?
For you to collect in the long term you'd need them to perform well 10 times in a row - and that consistancy is something that we still are not seeing out of Adelaide.
I can't see Richmond winning this game, but that 34 point headstart might be achievable as the Tigers desperately are trying to shake the "pussycats" tag.
The Pick :
Adelaide to win by 19 points.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
It's a risky punt - especially mentally becasue you're betting against the overwhelmingly likely winner ... but ...
Take RICHMOND with a +34 point start to cover.
Take RICHMOND with a +34 point start to cover.
