Eng. Championship
2007-05-15 - Derby County vs Southampton
A Sports Betting Pick by Cruiser
Analysis:The first leg between these two sides ended with a 2-1 win for The Rams. However The Saints will hope to overturn that deficit and hope that they can get a win here. Derby on the other hand needs a win but they have the same number of home statistics with Southampton and will do what the Saints failed to do in the first leg that is to get the win here.
The handicap in this match is exactly a mirror image of the first leg where the home team then (Southampton gave ¼ ball away) Back then Derby came out 2-1 winners and it did tricked many into believing that the team giving out the handicap would prevailed, but it didn’t happen that way.
Now the situation is exactly the same, so the bookies are playing mind games here. They are naturally leading us to think that Southampton could get a win here or the very least get a draw and still win half on the handicap given.
Their initial meeting this season ended in a pulsating 2-2 draw at Pride Park earlier this season which was also the first match they both played to kick off the season. Before the playoffs which Derby won 2-1 last week, Derby also managed to win 1-0 when they played at the St Mary’s Stadium.
And check out Derby’s last five home matches at Pride Park:
06 May 07 Derby County 2 - 0 Leeds United
20 Apr 07 Derby County 1 - 0 Luton Town
09 Apr 07 Derby County 1 - 1 Coventry City
17 Mar 07 Derby County 3 - 1 Cardiff City
13 Mar 07 Derby County 1 - 1 QPR
Since drawing with Coventry on the 9th April, they have won their last two home games beating Luton 1-0 and also Leeds United 2-0.
As for Southampton, they come into this match with an away record of 8 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats. They have scored 41 goals, which is the highest among the top 6 teams and conceded 33 also the most goals conceded among the top6.
Southampton’s last five games away from home reveals:
28 Apr 07 Norwich City 0 - 1 Southampton
14 Apr 07 Birmingham City 2 - 1 Southampton
07 Apr 07 Luton Town 0 - 2 Southampton
31 Mar 07 Wolves 0 - 6 Southampton
10 Mar 07 Stoke City 2 - 1 Southampton
If we check out the sides that they managed to beat, Luton Town as well as Wolves by convincing margins, Luton Town situated bottom of the table while Wolves were outclassed 2-0 at The Sr. Mary Stadium earlier they met. Furthermore, apart from the 0-0 draw with Wolves at the Molineux, they also hammered them 4-1 in the premiership when both sides met there, so that wasn’t a big surprise to be honest.
Watch out for Derby’s Steve Howard who scored two goals to put Derby in a good position for the final of the playoffs to be played at Wembley. The home side will miss the services of Giles Barnes through injury but otherwise will have a strong side for this match. They will be boosted by the return of Orten Bisgaard and Paul Peschisolido.
As for Southampton, Gareth Bale who are being chased by a number of clubs, including Manchester United looks set to miss the clash with an ankle injury and he will almost certainly be joined in the stands by in-form striker Kenwyne Jones who is out with a groin injury. However, they will be grateful to have the services of Leon Best or Grzegorz Rasiak as replacement for Jones.
George Burley is also unlikely to have the services of Darren Powell while Alexander Ostlund is struggling with an ankle injury.
Derby will aim to make it third time lucky after having failed twice before in their attempts to secure a spot back to the Premiership.
Cheers and good luck,
Cruiser
The Pick :
Derby County to win 2-1
BEST BETTING TIP :
Take Derby to win this match.
Gooner’s Statistical Value Bet
I will go for the Rams (Derby) to win this match and give the ¼ ball here
